Finding Value In A Likely Decision In Fiziev Vs. Dos Anjos

  • Rafael Fiziev and Rafael Dos Anjos go head tot head, with Fiziev a -230 favorite.
  • The fight has -148 odds to go the distance, which carries an implied probability of around 60%.
  • Fiziev bettors can more than triple their returns by wagering on Fiziev by decision rather than Fiziev outright, with about a 40% implied chance of loss.

LAS VEGAS – Rafael Fiziev and Rafael Dos Anjos are set to go head to head in a matchup that the sportsbooks believe will go the full five rounds.

Fiziev Vs. Dos Anjos: Will The Fight Go The Distance

  • Yes -148
  • No +115

The fight itself is believed to favor the up-and-coming Rafael Fiziev, who is currently on a five fight winning streak – although his most recent victory over Brad Riddell looks worse in light of Riddell getting mauled by Jalin Turner 45 seconds into the first round.

Fiziev Vs. Dos Anjos: Moneyline Odds

  • Rafael Dos Anjos +185
  • Rafael Fiziev -230

With the fight expected to go the distance, it’s possible that value can be found in the odds for each fighter to win by decision, rather than their outright odds.

Fiziev Vs. Dos Anjos: Odds For Each Fighter To Win By Decision

  • Rafael Dos Anjos – By Points +325
  • Rafael Fiziev – By Points +135

Taking Fiziev by decision yields a +135 return, while taking Fiziev on the moneyline costs you a wager at -230 UFC odds.

As for Dos Anjos, for the price of taking his decision odds rather than his outright odds, bettors move the line from +185 to +325.

The online sportsbooks -148 odds imply a 58.68% chance of an event occurring, which means that the fight is about 60-40 to go to a decision.

Advertising Disclosure provides you with the most current information regarding sports betting and fantasy with the help of commissions we receive from links you may click on our site.

Let’s say you take on that 40% downside risk. If a bettor wagered $100 on Fiziev to win by points, they would receive $135 in profit. A wager of $100 on Fiziev to win outright yields $43.48 in profit.

So, in exchange for that 40% downside risk of the fight not going to a decision, bettors can more than triple their potential winnings.

Dos Anjos’ wagerers will see less marginal profit here. A wager of $100 on Dos Anjos to win yields $185, while a wager of $100 on Dos Anjos by points yields $325.

Thus, moving from Dos Anjos outright to Dos Anjos by points only yields a 1.7x multiplier, as opposed to the 3.1x multiplier that Fiziev bettors got.

Whether or not that’s worth the 40% downside risk is up to you.