The Math Behind Patrick Mahomes Same Game Parlays

  • Parlaying Mahomes over 400 passing yards with the Chiefs to win yields +1400 odds.
  • Since the Chiefs have +105 ML odds, Mahomes over 400 passing has to have shorter than +630 odds for the parlay to be good value.

LAS VEGAS - Bettors can double up their money on unique parlay wagers at online sportsbooks with Super Bowl same game parlays.

The Kansas City Chiefs feature the best quarterback in the game, Patrick Mahomes – here’s what a Same Game Parlay with Mahomes and the Chiefs to win can look like.

Mahomes/Chiefs Same Game Parlay Odds

Patrick Mahomes 400+ Pass Yards And Chiefs To Win +1400

Since both of these parlays have the Chiefs to win on them, that’s the obvious first place to start.

The Chiefs have +105 odds to win the Super Bowl at most online sportsbooks, making them an underdog. Thus, these are double-underdog parlays.

This increases the payout potential, but also increases the risk of making the wager in the first place.

Mahomes at 400+ yards isn’t even listed on Bovada’s offerings for Patrick Mahomes wagers. This is what they do have:

Mahomes Passing Yards Range Odds

  • 251-300 +250
  • 351 or more +250
  • 301-350 +275
  • 201-250 +350
  • 200 or less +575

Mahomes has nine 400-yard passing games in his career, and two this season.

They also have some props for Mahomes to get at least a certain number of passing yards, but even those fall short of 400.

Mahomes At Least X Passing Yards Odds

  • 336 +133
  • 346 +167
  • 356 +210
  • 366 +254
  • 376 +320

Given this trend, we can ballpark that Mahomes’ odds to hit 400+ passing yards – remember that the Eagles have the best pass defense in the NFL – at somewhere above +400.

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Given that, let’s take a look at whether this parlay is good value, and what Mahomes’ odds for hitting that number would have to be for it to be good value.

Using our assumption of +400 odds on Mahomes over 400 yards, a parlay of that and the Chiefs +105 odds would yield +925 odds, meaning this is a good value bet IF you believe Mahomes’ odds to get 400+ yards are around +400.

At +500, it ends up being about +1130, meaning it’s still a reasonable value bet if you believe Mahomes’ odds to get 400+ yards are about +500.

About +630 seems to be the breakpoint. At that point, a SGP with the Chiefs ML yields approximately +1396 odds, almost exactly what the wager is here.

If Mahomes over 400+ is any higher than +630, this is a bad bet. If it’s any lower, this is a good bet.