Why it Might be Time to Fade Tyreek Hill Props vs. Buffalo

  • Tyreek Hill has -115 odds to go under 61.5 receiving yards.
  • Tua Tagovailoa will not be playing for the Dolphins.
  • Hill has no receiving touchdowns without Tagovailoa under center.

BUFFALO, N.Y. - Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins is going to be arguably the best player on the field as the Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills in the absence of Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Hill’s production has fallen off without Tagovailoa under center – he’s had less than five receptions in each of his last two games without Tua.

Total Receiving Yards - Tyreek Hill Odds

  • Over 61.5 -115
  • Under 61.5 -115

This makes betting on him at online sportsbooks a tough prospect. In those last two games, he’s gone under 61.5 yards each time.

He’s played four full games without Tua under center this season. In those four games, he’s put together 25 catches for 302 yards and a rushing touchdown.

However, only one of those games saw Hill go over 61.5 yards. How is this possible?

The answer is that Tyreek absolutely torched the Minnesota Vikings, putting up more than half of his non-Tua production in that game.

He had 177 receiving yards on 12 receptions, while none of his other performances without Tua even broke 60 yards.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds

  • Tyreek Hill +185

Hill is a prolific scorer of the ball, but of his eight total touchdowns, only one came without Tua under center – and that was a rushing touchdown.

Hill still has not scored a single touchdown as a receiver without Tua Tagovailoa passing him the ball – and the NFL betting markets know it.

First Half Touchdown Scorer Odds

  • Tyreek Hill - 1H +300

Hill has only scored one receiving touchdown in the first half all season. The other six of his receiving touchdowns have all happened in the second half.

Between that and his inability to score receiving touchdowns without Tua under center, it might be best to stay away from Hill TD scoring props in this game.

Will Tyreek Score A Touchdown? Y/N